Furry Cons & Coronavirus
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Kumali
Lupine-American
sciencebasedmedicine.org: COVID-19 update: What you need to know now that it’s officially a pandemic
Excerpt, with emphasis added: "Roughly 20% of those with COVID-19 will develop disease severe enough to require hospitalization, with roughly 5-6% requiring mechanical ventilation. Given those numbers, it wouldn’t take very many cases relative to the total population to completely overwhelm our medical system. This has already happened in Italy, as I mentioned early on, to the point where Italian doctors have little choice but to institute wartime-like triage, and, again, Lombardy is a wealthy region with excellent medical facilities. It’s no wonder that, in the light of what we’re seeing in other parts of the world, doctors and public health officials are becoming very alarmed, with good reason."
Excerpt, with emphasis added: "Roughly 20% of those with COVID-19 will develop disease severe enough to require hospitalization, with roughly 5-6% requiring mechanical ventilation. Given those numbers, it wouldn’t take very many cases relative to the total population to completely overwhelm our medical system. This has already happened in Italy, as I mentioned early on, to the point where Italian doctors have little choice but to institute wartime-like triage, and, again, Lombardy is a wealthy region with excellent medical facilities. It’s no wonder that, in the light of what we’re seeing in other parts of the world, doctors and public health officials are becoming very alarmed, with good reason."
Kumali
Lupine-American
www.kevinmd.com: A COVID-19 coronavirus update from concerned physicians
Excerpts, with emphases added:
“The COVID-19 threat is real, and rapidly getting worse. Many of you are very nervous; some are unsure of the validity of the information you are reading. As physician leaders, we felt it was important to craft a resource you can rely on as being scientifically accurate and one which contains as much actionable information and guidance as possible.
“Accurate, actionable information during an epidemic can save lives. Physicians are on the front line of this epidemic. Not only are we treating the sick, but we are also cringing at the misinformation spread through both traditional broadcast and social media. Evidence matters. Unfortunately, evidence is often slow, methodical, and boring and has a tough time against clicky headlines and exaggeration. We believe that an accurate representation of the current COVID-19 pandemic followed by a set of actionable steps you, your loved ones, politicians, and local officials can utilize is of paramount importance and ultimately could save tens of thousands of lives.
“COVID-19 has been described by some as ‘just a cold,’ or just like the common flu. COVID-19 is not a common flu. COVID-19 is an order of magnitude worse than the flu. The fatality rate is approximately ten times worse than the flu. […]
“The health care system in the USA is not ready to handle tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of people over a short time frame. In Italy, the health care system buckled under the strain, and the health care teams are now forced to make horrible life and death decisions. […]
“Exponential math is very hard to grasp. Every person with the COVID-19 virus infects approximately two people. Some less, some more. The infection rate doubles every six days. That means that if 50,000 people have the virus today, then in 6 days, 100,000 people will have it. In another 12 days it’s 400,000 and less than two weeks later it’s over a million people. We have 330 million people in the US. The experts expect that 40-70% of people will be infected. Exponential growth does not take that long to get to those scary high numbers. Every six days we delay, the number of infections double.
“The effectiveness of our health care system to deal with a sudden tsunami of respiratory illness is what is at risk. If our health care system buckles under the strain of tens of thousands of patients, then we could be looking at a catastrophe. […]
“If our health care system fails, then we will all suffer. If the hospital is choked with COVID-19 patients, people with appendicitis, heart attacks, broken ankles, and so on will not be able to be treated. This is the picture of systemic risk. Everyone is at risk if there is a systemic failure of our health care system, not just those with COVID-19.
“The challenge is this: By following the appropriate recommended social isolation measures, you will be saving lives of not just those at increased risk who are infected, but also those who need other critical health care services, including potentially yourself. You will be saving the lives of people you will never meet.
“Who should follow our suggested social isolation measures? EVERYONE. If you do not need to go out for a mission-critical purpose, do not. Again, you WILL be saving the lives of at-risk members of your own family, as well as people you will never have the pleasure of meeting.
“Containment of COVID-19 is no longer possible. The virus is already in the country and is currently spreading. We need to slow the spread. Mitigation is the best current strategy. It involves strict social isolation. If 50% of the U.S. population becomes infected, 5% of infected people will need a ventilator in an ICU, and if we have only a limited number of ventilators available in the country, you can quickly see the issue at hand.
“This is an extremely time-sensitive and serious issue that needs to be addressed now. We can’t simply manufacture the number of ventilators necessary. We need to slow the spread and decrease the overall rate at which people will be coming to the hospital.
“We use the description: We must flatten the curve. That means that we need to slow the rate of infection so that the number of people who need hospital services remains in the range that our health care system can supply. In mitigation, we are no longer trying to contain the virus; we are merely trying to slow the rate of infection to keep the health care system from collapsing.
“All of you can save lives starting now.
“The actions you take starting today will save the lives of people you will never meet.”
Excerpts, with emphases added:
“The COVID-19 threat is real, and rapidly getting worse. Many of you are very nervous; some are unsure of the validity of the information you are reading. As physician leaders, we felt it was important to craft a resource you can rely on as being scientifically accurate and one which contains as much actionable information and guidance as possible.
“Accurate, actionable information during an epidemic can save lives. Physicians are on the front line of this epidemic. Not only are we treating the sick, but we are also cringing at the misinformation spread through both traditional broadcast and social media. Evidence matters. Unfortunately, evidence is often slow, methodical, and boring and has a tough time against clicky headlines and exaggeration. We believe that an accurate representation of the current COVID-19 pandemic followed by a set of actionable steps you, your loved ones, politicians, and local officials can utilize is of paramount importance and ultimately could save tens of thousands of lives.
“COVID-19 has been described by some as ‘just a cold,’ or just like the common flu. COVID-19 is not a common flu. COVID-19 is an order of magnitude worse than the flu. The fatality rate is approximately ten times worse than the flu. […]
“The health care system in the USA is not ready to handle tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of people over a short time frame. In Italy, the health care system buckled under the strain, and the health care teams are now forced to make horrible life and death decisions. […]
“Exponential math is very hard to grasp. Every person with the COVID-19 virus infects approximately two people. Some less, some more. The infection rate doubles every six days. That means that if 50,000 people have the virus today, then in 6 days, 100,000 people will have it. In another 12 days it’s 400,000 and less than two weeks later it’s over a million people. We have 330 million people in the US. The experts expect that 40-70% of people will be infected. Exponential growth does not take that long to get to those scary high numbers. Every six days we delay, the number of infections double.
“The effectiveness of our health care system to deal with a sudden tsunami of respiratory illness is what is at risk. If our health care system buckles under the strain of tens of thousands of patients, then we could be looking at a catastrophe. […]
“If our health care system fails, then we will all suffer. If the hospital is choked with COVID-19 patients, people with appendicitis, heart attacks, broken ankles, and so on will not be able to be treated. This is the picture of systemic risk. Everyone is at risk if there is a systemic failure of our health care system, not just those with COVID-19.
“The challenge is this: By following the appropriate recommended social isolation measures, you will be saving lives of not just those at increased risk who are infected, but also those who need other critical health care services, including potentially yourself. You will be saving the lives of people you will never meet.
“Who should follow our suggested social isolation measures? EVERYONE. If you do not need to go out for a mission-critical purpose, do not. Again, you WILL be saving the lives of at-risk members of your own family, as well as people you will never have the pleasure of meeting.
“Containment of COVID-19 is no longer possible. The virus is already in the country and is currently spreading. We need to slow the spread. Mitigation is the best current strategy. It involves strict social isolation. If 50% of the U.S. population becomes infected, 5% of infected people will need a ventilator in an ICU, and if we have only a limited number of ventilators available in the country, you can quickly see the issue at hand.
“This is an extremely time-sensitive and serious issue that needs to be addressed now. We can’t simply manufacture the number of ventilators necessary. We need to slow the spread and decrease the overall rate at which people will be coming to the hospital.
“We use the description: We must flatten the curve. That means that we need to slow the rate of infection so that the number of people who need hospital services remains in the range that our health care system can supply. In mitigation, we are no longer trying to contain the virus; we are merely trying to slow the rate of infection to keep the health care system from collapsing.
“All of you can save lives starting now.
“The actions you take starting today will save the lives of people you will never meet.”
Kumali
Lupine-American
Kumali
Lupine-American
Coronavirus UK: Gym-goer, 39, warns public from intensive care | Daily Mail Online
'Don't take any chances, just look at me': Fit-and-healthy gym-goer, 39, struggles to breathe from coronavirus as she gives stark warning from her intensive care hospital bed
Excerpts: “A fit-and-healthy mother who filmed herself struggling to breathe as she warned of the dangers of coronavirus has said it felt like having 'glass in her lungs'.
“Tara Jane Langston, 39, told of how every breath is a ‘battle’ but she is now out of intensive care and recovering well.
“The mother-of-two was rushed to hospital by ambulance last Friday and eventually diagnosed with Covid-19 on Sunday. […]
“Gasping for breath and coughing, she made the harrowing video the following day and sent it as a Whatsapp message to her colleagues warning them to take care. […]
“She told MailOnline this evening: 'It’s like having glass in your lungs, it’s hard to explain, but every breath is a battle.
“‘It’s absolutely horrible and I wouldn’t want to go through anything like this ever again. I’d been ill for about five days before I was taken to hospital in an ambulance. […]
“‘Fortunately I was kept awake but needed six litres of oxygen. Now that I’m improving I’m on one litre.’
“Ms Langston is now recovering from her ordeal after catching the virus, which has infected 2,695 people and killed 137 in Britain alone. […]
“‘I just worry that when this virus starts getting worse they’re going to be swamped.’ […]
“She said that becoming infected had changed her viewpoint, explaining: ‘People have to realise that they need to self-isolate, it’s the only way. Believe me.
“‘I can understand their mind-set because I had that attitude before of "it’s a load of nonsense, it’s just being all hyped up" before I got this– I wasn’t one to buy into all the hysteria. But then I got the coronavirus and I never again want to experience anything like it because it was a deeply unpleasant experience.
“‘That’s why I filmed myself in the ICU and sent it to my work mates because they were supposed to be all meeting up for a training event and I wanted to tell them not to go as it wasn’t worth the risk. They’d be better off staying at home self-isolating.
“‘Whatever restrictions the government has now been put in place should have been done two weeks ago I believe. My story should be a warning to others – you need to take this seriously.’”
'Don't take any chances, just look at me': Fit-and-healthy gym-goer, 39, struggles to breathe from coronavirus as she gives stark warning from her intensive care hospital bed
Excerpts: “A fit-and-healthy mother who filmed herself struggling to breathe as she warned of the dangers of coronavirus has said it felt like having 'glass in her lungs'.
“Tara Jane Langston, 39, told of how every breath is a ‘battle’ but she is now out of intensive care and recovering well.
“The mother-of-two was rushed to hospital by ambulance last Friday and eventually diagnosed with Covid-19 on Sunday. […]
“Gasping for breath and coughing, she made the harrowing video the following day and sent it as a Whatsapp message to her colleagues warning them to take care. […]
“She told MailOnline this evening: 'It’s like having glass in your lungs, it’s hard to explain, but every breath is a battle.
“‘It’s absolutely horrible and I wouldn’t want to go through anything like this ever again. I’d been ill for about five days before I was taken to hospital in an ambulance. […]
“‘Fortunately I was kept awake but needed six litres of oxygen. Now that I’m improving I’m on one litre.’
“Ms Langston is now recovering from her ordeal after catching the virus, which has infected 2,695 people and killed 137 in Britain alone. […]
“‘I just worry that when this virus starts getting worse they’re going to be swamped.’ […]
“She said that becoming infected had changed her viewpoint, explaining: ‘People have to realise that they need to self-isolate, it’s the only way. Believe me.
“‘I can understand their mind-set because I had that attitude before of "it’s a load of nonsense, it’s just being all hyped up" before I got this– I wasn’t one to buy into all the hysteria. But then I got the coronavirus and I never again want to experience anything like it because it was a deeply unpleasant experience.
“‘That’s why I filmed myself in the ICU and sent it to my work mates because they were supposed to be all meeting up for a training event and I wanted to tell them not to go as it wasn’t worth the risk. They’d be better off staying at home self-isolating.
“‘Whatever restrictions the government has now been put in place should have been done two weeks ago I believe. My story should be a warning to others – you need to take this seriously.’”
VX666
The Foxy Goddess
A lot of infections have caughing blood as a symptom
VX666
The Foxy Goddess
I only posted facts and asked legit questions, making snarky comments and calling it "bullshit" isnt helpful
I'm trying to get a perspective of this pathogen. The numbers and facts dont add up high enough to justify shutting down the world
VX666
The Foxy Goddess
Are there any confirmations of this incident?
ConorHyena
From out of the rain.
I completely, absolutely agree.
ConorHyena
From out of the rain.
All right, I'll humour you. We're assuming that 20% of the corona cases are severe and need respiratory aid and intensive care (the RKI said this). 70% of the population will fall sick, which means, combined in the US and the EU we'd be looking at 560 million sick, and 112 million so severely ill that they need intensive care. This massively exceeds the number of hospital beds we have, so all those people will die.
Even if my numbers are off the mark by 50%, it's still 55 million potentially dead.
WWII had 60 million casualties.
Perhaps now you see the point. This really isn't the time to spread misinformation.
ConorHyena
From out of the rain.
Your first argument is a blatant lie. Go look at the situation in italy, or read or talk to any medical man. I can link you an interview with one of germany's prime virologists, Mr. Drosten, it's even in english.
For your second argument I'd like to see a source, not because I don't believe it, mind you, but because I'd like to know where you take this certainity.
The third point is quite immaterial for this discussion - population growth has nothing to do with the corona virus
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Raever
Chaotic Neutral Wreckage
The Yeen said pretty much everything I wanted to say AND added sources. So, guess all I want to personally add is some friendly reminders:
1. Carona is not nearly as bad as The Black Plague (at least not yet), people need to stop over reacting to it
2. Carona IS worse than the average flu, as we've learned and seen, so let's stop under-reacting to it as well
(Example: Around 56,000 people die of the flu globally each year according to a quick google search, but Carona has already hit a global 21,000 reported death cases in less than three months. Again, according to a quick Google search. If this is true and Carona becomes as "normal" as the flu is for us, we may have 126,000 people - minimum - dropping per year from it. That's scary stuff!)
Granted, the above is a very loose estimation based on very loose numbers taken from a thirty second search on google. It doesn't account for age, conditions, and other circumstances that may cause death.
So take all of that with a grain of salt.
My point: Stay logical, do your research, follow far more than one news source because they're all biased to some degree, and most of all stay hygienic. We don't need Furs dropping due to a lack of basic health standards.
Edit: Also to those of you hoarding all of the soap, rubbing alcohol, masks, gloves, and toilet paper...fuck you, lol
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Kumali
Lupine-American
The video is linked in the article. Unless you think she's acting.
Fallowfox
Are we moomin, or are we dancer?
I mean, I would have thought that the video footage of trucks carrying bodies out of towns in Lombardy to emergency crematoria would have been enough to persuade people that Covid-19 isn't just a 'flu'.
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Kumali
Lupine-American
You’re not even reading the information I’ve posted links to, are you.
Once again:
Howard J. Luks, M.D., Joel Topf, M.D., Ethan J. Weiss, M.D., Carrie Diulus, M.D., Nancy Yen Shipley, M.D., and Eric Levi, M.D.:
“The fatality rate is approximately ten times worse than the flu. […]
“The health care system in the USA is not ready to handle tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of people over a short time frame. In Italy, the health care system buckled under the strain, and the health care teams are now forced to make horrible life and death decisions. […]
“Exponential math is very hard to grasp. Every person with the COVID-19 virus infects approximately two people. Some less, some more. The infection rate doubles every six days. That means that if 50,000 people have the virus today, then in 6 days, 100,000 people will have it. In another 12 days it’s 400,000 and less than two weeks later it’s over a million people. We have 330 million people in the US. The experts expect that 40-70% of people will be infected. Exponential growth does not take that long to get to those scary high numbers. Every six days we delay, the number of infections double.
“The effectiveness of our health care system to deal with a sudden tsunami of respiratory illness is what is at risk. If our health care system buckles under the strain of tens of thousands of patients, then we could be looking at a catastrophe.”
From www.kevinmd.com: A COVID-19 coronavirus update from concerned physicians
~
David H. Gorski, M.D., Ph.D.:
"Roughly 20% of those with COVID-19 will develop disease severe enough to require hospitalization, with roughly 5-6% requiring mechanical ventilation. Given those numbers, it wouldn’t take very many cases relative to the total population to completely overwhelm our medical system. This has already happened in Italy.”
From sciencebasedmedicine.org: COVID-19 update: What you need to know now that it’s officially a pandemic
~
Clayton Dalton, M.D., emergency medicine resident physician at Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston:
“Why is it so difficult for us to appreciate the scale of what an unchecked global pandemic could do? The answer may have something to do with how difficult it is to intuitively understand abstract concepts like exponential growth.
“This difficulty has been appreciated since at least 1256, when an Islamic scholar recorded what is known as the wheat and chessboard problem. The problem appears in a parable about the inventor of chess, whose king demands to purchase the new game. The inventor names his price, to be paid in wheat. He suggested that one grain of wheat should be placed on the first square of the chessboard, two grains on the second, and so on, with the sum doubling in this way over 64 squares. The king thinks this a great bargain, and is stunned when his treasurer informs him that the sum would bankrupt the kingdom. The total number of grains comes to 18,446,744,073,709,551,615.
“Here’s another example. If you took 30 steps from your front door, with each step twice as large as the last, how far could you get? The answer might surprise you – it’s 26 times the Earth’s circumference. Our inability to appreciate how extraordinarily powerful exponential growth can be has concrete consequences. It’s a major reason why people don’t take their retirement accounts seriously enough, for one. It’s also why people seem to be struggling to understand why every single day matters enormously in limiting the spread of the coronavirus, which follows an exponential growth pattern.
“We are already in the midst of exponential growth in the coronavirus outbreak, with every indicator suggesting that the virus is now spreading unchecked within communities across the country.
“The good news, though, is that if we act today instead of tomorrow we can prevent a huge number of infections, and a lot of deaths. Time is of the absolute essence here, and it’s individual choices that matter the most. Aggressive social distancing, avoiding all non-essential social contact, avoiding public places like bars, restaurants and movie theaters, and practicing obsessive hand hygiene are all critically important.”
From www.theguardian.com: I'm an ER doctor. Please take coronavirus seriously | Clayton Dalton
Fallowfox
Are we moomin, or are we dancer?
It's worth pointing out Italy was regarded as having one of the best healthcare systems in Europe before this outbreak.
That may, in part, be why Italians have one of the longest life expectancies in the developed world. That means there's lots of old Italians who are vulnerable to diseases like this, unfortunately.
That may, in part, be why Italians have one of the longest life expectancies in the developed world. That means there's lots of old Italians who are vulnerable to diseases like this, unfortunately.
VX666
The Foxy Goddess
I'm literally there, there are people getting I'll and dying, but that's happened every year. These deaths arent linked to COVID-19, there are hundreds of viruses out there causing people to get I'll and die every year. This year is no different.
The lack of any citation of anything happening is the proof, there is no source of anyone dying from COVID-19 as the primary cause because it didnt happen.
I'm not saying it hasn't happened, but I cant find any proof anyone died from COVID-19 as the primary cause.
VX666
The Foxy Goddess
Well the problem with the reported deaths this year is that they weren't primarily caused by COVID-19.
I'd still like to see definitive cases where testing was done to isolate COVID-19 as the primary cause.
VX666
The Foxy Goddess
That's an implicitly narrated and edited video of pacifiers that are used to transport live support workers, not dead bodies.
I saw no dead bodies, just animated text implicitly super imposed.
I'd be very careful about posting false doctored information like that.
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VX666
The Foxy Goddess
I read that, that's peoples opinion and narriation.
There are 8 billion of people in this world, I'm asking about are there any documented cases of COVID-19 killing someone as a primary cause and details?
I read one anecdotal report of a girl who contracted some cold at a gym, she was hospitalized for a week with pneumonia, she was tested and found to have the COVID-19 but hundreds of other infections.
That was the closest I could find but could not confirm it.
VX666
The Foxy Goddess
The hype in Italy just is not true.
There is a mortality rate here but this year is only slightly higher than last year.
It's a slightly worse than average year but people arent dropping like flies here.
Simo
Professional Watermelon Farmer
Not to be overly technical, but could this thread please be used to discuss the impact of Coronavirus on Furry Conventions, other gatherings and how this will impact the furry community?
It matters little that the virus is the 'technical' cause of death: that's splitting hairs. Similarly, in HIV/AIDS, death is due to 'other complications', but those complications/causes would not have been there, if not for AIDS. Please stop with all these posts about how Corona Virus in either not to blame or not dangerous.
Again, if you wish to expound upon this, please start a thread of your own to do so; this is meant to discuss the impact of the virus on the furry community.
Thank you.
It matters little that the virus is the 'technical' cause of death: that's splitting hairs. Similarly, in HIV/AIDS, death is due to 'other complications', but those complications/causes would not have been there, if not for AIDS. Please stop with all these posts about how Corona Virus in either not to blame or not dangerous.
Again, if you wish to expound upon this, please start a thread of your own to do so; this is meant to discuss the impact of the virus on the furry community.
Thank you.
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VX666
The Foxy Goddess
First of all, why are you singling me out?
We very much are trying to determine the dangers of this virus, it doesnt discriminate furries in particular or not.
HIV is the primary underlying cause in AIDS cases. There are many documented cases of deaths from HIV as a primary cause.
But there isnt any for COVID-19.
We know it spreads quickly and easilly. But we haven't seen anyone die from it as a primary cause.
I'm not saying we should ignore the dangers but there are 200 other viruses that come and go each year to worry about too in large gatherings, why stop now?
This thread literally states Furry Conventiond and COvid19,That is literally what we are talking about, why would you suggest we start another thread?
ConorHyena
From out of the rain.
there you go: https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ...chte/2020-03-21-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile
Is in english, don't worry. 47 deaths due to Corona/Covid-19 in Germany.