I don't expect any fur conventions to take place for the remainder of the year. I can see it leaking into next year as well until a vaccine is developed, which will take some time.
That's my take on things, as well: I think it's going to be a while. Hoping to go to a con next March/April, but even that seems iffy. (Motor City Fur Con or Fur the 'More)
Boy, is this thread interesting to read from March to now.
There's a secondary level to the cancellations beyond safety. Even if we can magically make the con hyper safe (PAX East was religious on sanitation which was wonderful, honestly, not even a sniffle from it, though I had very dry hands) attendance this year will be down. Cons that can't guarantee enough attendees to cover operating costs can't risk running.
As bit of an idea, a not-furry event I run every year that averages 120+ attendees is cancelling because we need a minimum of 40 paying attendees just to rent the venue. This ignores paying for anything that would people *want* to attend.
It is curious to look back, having started this thread, back in March, sheesh.
I'd agree that cons are going to take a while to bounce back, and for a number of reasons:
1. The virus is far from under control. There could be additional spikes in cases, and outright restrictions on travel and gatherings. Even without such restrictions, many people simply won't want to take the risk.
2. Going to a con with tons of rules about distancing will be much less fun, even if it might be technically possible. But a con without hugs, wild room parties, and the kind of reveries that I associate with past furry cons would make me delay going to one, until I was able to...better enjoy myself.
3. The economy is in the worst recession since the great depression. Many people are out of work, under-employed, and don't have the money.
4. This level of uncertainty and lack of knowing what to expect if a con were to be held will make it hard for cons to guarantee enough attendees to cover basic operating costs.
...my guess is that cons will start to come back next spring/summer; would love to go to one sooner but I find it best to wait till I know I'll be able to let loose, and enjoy things without worry.