Actually talking about politics again looking at congress' approval rating via-
http://www.gallup.com/poll/159401/congress-approval-remains-during-fiscal-cliff-debate.aspx
Looking at the difference between republican and democrat approval ratings in the long run democrats had a far higher approval rating in 2010, going into 2011 and lasting until the beginning of the fiscal cliff talks both parties had similar approval ratings. However with the fiscal cliff democrats profited the most widening the approval rating difference between the two parties.
With the upcoming talks about the deficit ceiling you have to raise the deficit ceiling end of story. If the deficit ceiling talks drag on like how they did with the budget talks not only will democrats benefit again, but it will drop the republican party's approval rating again. Basically if this was a game of poker not only are democrats for the most part ahead the republican party's current hand looks like crap. If they raise and try to bluff then and the democrats don't fold the republicans will lose what few chips they have left. If they fold then the lose the least amount of chips. Their own hope to win big is to raise the bet and hope the democrats fold.
However my two cents is that no matter what if you get handed a crap hand just fold. Bluffing is for when you might have something and it turns out you didn't. To get further into the metaphor of poker, if you get handed 5, 6, 7, 9 & 10 then you can continue and if you discard your 10 & 9 hoping for a 4 or 8 and you are handed a 2 & jack then you bluff. However if you get handed a 1, 2, 5, 9 & jack then just fold cause you aren't going to win.
Basically what I am getting at is the republican party needs to learn how to gamble. Right now they are going big when they should be biding their time hoping for the deck to get hot. The deck was hot(fiscal cliff) and now not only did they lose, but the deck is getting cold and their current hand is crap. If they keep going big then by the time 2014 rolls around not only will they be down to their last few chips the deck will be hot, hot, hot and they will have to go big to keep control of the house, except they won't have the chips to go big. The reason why I think gay marriage will be legal, abortion will still be legal & pot will soon be legal is the republican party is gambling when they should be biding their time for the next election to go big, instead they are going big when they are behind and are getting crap hands.
It's less of a "everyone in the usa is going to approve of gay marriage" and more of a "those opposed to gay marriage don't know how to gamble".